- Political wagering is a great betting market option because it relies heavily on the attitude of the public toward current and potential political leaders and officials. Political polls, articles, and opinion pieces can often provide bettors with an indication of how the public is leaning in regards to a specific candidate or event.
- Top rated political betting sites. Get the latest on political prop bets and where you can place bets on them.
Political betting odds are not solely available just for the major elections. Whenever any US politician for either the Republicans or Democrats (or any third party) runs for office, delivers a speech, participates in a debate, or attempts to pass a bill or mandate, oddsmakers waste no time posting a variety of betting odds surrounding these events. Tips for Political Betting. The best way to become really good at betting on politics is to become very good at predicting the popularity of each candidate. External factors that come into play are scandals and death which are really hard to predict. Finally, I believe that XBet.ag also belongs to any list of top political betting sites for the USA. It’s one of my favorites thanks to the proper online gambling license, the strong security measures, and its good reputation. What I like the most about XBet.ag when it comes to gambling on US elections is the variety of prop bets at your.
Everything You Need To Know About Betting On Political Elections Safely & Legally
Politics has always been a critical part of society, and political betting has been a natural byproduct of governance as the public speculates on who will lead their communities and what their chances of winning are. If you're interested in the election betting market, we're here to explain exactly how the industry works, who the key players are, where you can wager on their campaigns, and more.
From Presidential primary odds and debate props to Trump impeachment betting and how the coronavirus has upended the entire 2020 Presidential election, we'll show you how to bet - and who to bet on - at the best offshore sportsbooks taking election wagers. These sites are legal and safe to use, allowing bettors to line their pockets with cash while also celebrating the victory of their favorite candidate.
Top Rated Sportsbooks To Legally Bet On Politics
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Americans everywhere are on edge, with no clear presidential winner in sight. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have realistic paths to victory, and too many variables are in play to decidedly know when a winner will be declared. Before we get into the presidential betting lines and hypothetical outcomes, let’s dive into what’s happening in the crucial Senate and House races. Democrats hoped to […]
Here are the latest updates on election day. Joe Biden started his day visiting the graves of his late son Beau, late wife, and baby daughter. Biden returned to his childhood home in Scranton, Pennsylvania, writing on the wall, “From this house to the White House with the Grace of God, Joe Biden November 3rd, 2020.” Biden will spend election night at his home in […]
In the political news world, the Trump and Biden teams are heading off in the Midwest for the last day of campaigning. President Donald Trump and Democratic hopeful Joe Biden tackle the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Unprecedented spikes in coronavirus cases, problems with mail-in and early voting, and voter suppression accounts coupled with election fraud conspiracy circulate the American media. Recent surges […]
The election is just a few short days away, and there is more confusion than ever among the American public and bettors alike on who will take the Presidency. Here at PAB, we break down what happened this week in the wild world of politics and take a look at the political betting lines that every bettor worth their marbles are keenly watching for movement. […]
There is so much to recap in the short time since our last article. Here at PoliticsandBetting.com, we breakdown the hot topics without the fluff. Sorting through the slew of biased news and picking out the fundamental morsels of truth feels like swatting a fly with a sledgehammer. Luckily, here at PAB, we’re ripped. Let’s go step by step and take a look at the […]
November 3rd approaches on the horizon, captivating the attention of a nation wishing to anchor the United States on greener pastures. The Joe Biden campaign rallies workers, students, Black voters, Latinx voters, and Trump turncoats under a unified message: bring normality back into the White House and stability back into our democratic institutions President Trump primarily markets to political and religious conservatives, non-educated white voters, […]
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his 2020 presidential campaign in late April and now leads all Democratic candidates in the latest polling data and betting odds. According to the most recent polling data gathered on a national scale and averaged by RealClearPolitics, a whopping 41.4% of likely Democratic voters say they support Biden over all other Democrats running for president in next year’s primary […]
The Beto O’Clock is ticking, and the end of the month is just days away. At the beginning of February, Former Democratic Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke told Oprah in a televised interview that he’ll decide whether to enter the 2020 presidential race “by the end of this month.” And the oddsmakers certainly like his chances at winning the 2020 presidential election, placing him in either […]
Bernie Sanders ignited a base within the Democratic Party in 2016, and now he will officially look to carry that momentum toward winning the presidency in 2020. On Tuesday, Feb. 19, the independent senator from Vermont announced that he is running for President of the United States and will seek the 2020 Democratic nomination after several months of speculation from the public. “I’m running for […]
In an attempt to limit the widespread influence of voting-related fake news, one social media network introduced a new policy in hopes of combatting misinformation this upcoming election. On Monday, October 15, 2018, Facebook, the largest social network platform in the world with 1.5 billion users logging on daily, announced it will ban all false reports on requirements for voting, long wait times for voters, […]
Why Bet on Politics?
Political wagering is a great betting market option because it relies heavily on the attitude of the public toward current and potential political leaders and officials. Political polls, articles, and opinion pieces can often provide bettors with an indication of how the public is leaning in regards to a specific candidate or event. Political wagering can go beyond a single individual and is also a great method to secure sizable payouts based on proper research.
While the political betting market is at times predictable because historical trends often reveal future outcomes of various elections and political events, it can also be unpredictable in terms of scandals, crimes, and other world events which can turn a solid bet into instant pudding. Remember, Bernie was a sure thing until he wasn't, and Trump seemed unbeatable until everyone in America caught a cold and called in sick. Now? Well, that's where you make your money!
Types of Bets Available For Political Wagering
Most election bets are of the straight moneyline variety (bettors simply pick a winner), while prop bets and other specials are often over/under wagers or yes/no bets. As a general rule, each sportsbook will have different political lines posted, though there is usually some overlap.
To maximize your political betting opportunities, you should join several offshore books and shop lines to find the most attractive odds, funniest wagers, and the best values possible. The most popular types of political bets provided by the best online politics and betting sites include the following:
- Election Bets - These are wagers on which politicians will win particular contests. These encompass primary elections, state-by-state electoral vote counts, and general elections. Usually, most election wagers are on national contests, but you can also find certain state races featured (House, Senate, Gubernatorial). Election odds are almost always presented as straight bets.
- Futures Bets - These bets are placed far in advance of a future event, like an upcoming election. Such bets can have the smallest risks with the largest payouts if you win. The best example of an election futures wager is betting on the candidate to win the 2020 Presidential election months or even years before the November vote. For most of the Trump presidency, for example, 2020 futures have been a hot commodity on political betting sites.
- Proposition Bets - Also known as prop bets, these are usually presented as yes/no or over/under lines. Political prop bets cover just about everything that doesn't have to do with election outcomes themselves. Examples of these types of wagers include debate props, coronavirus props, Trump impeachment odds, Presidential resignation odds, and various wacky wagers on things like the next country to declare war on the US or the next terrorist to get killed or captured by the American military. You can even wager on things like how many times President Trump will tweet during a given political or sporting event!
Regional Politics Covered In This Guide
This site covers major political events from a variety of regions. We look at critical elections like congressional midterms, Presidential primaries, and general elections, as well as various party politics and the stances of individual candidates. Right now, globally, most sportsbooks are focused on US election odds, as America – particularly during the Trump years – has been the focus of bettors worldwide.
United States Election Betting
Betting on US politics is a growing area of the offshore gambling industry, though domestic US sportsbooks do not accept wagers on election outcomes. Thus, to wager on politics, you must do so with the reputable international sportsbooks listed here.
This section of our guide will provide in-depth information on the Presidential primaries and general election, Senate elections, House elections, and Gubernatorial elections. You'll also learn about the types of bets to place, handicapping factors to consider, current odds, tips for betting on each particular election, and analysis of select candidates.
Visit our USA Political Betting Odds for more information.
Factors To Consider When Placing Political Bets
First, bettors must understand the type of government on which they are betting. In all betting, especially when it comes to political wagers, it is important to research the current social climate and how the provided betting odds were formed. Although political odds are not the only guideline for making political bets, they can aid in gauging public opinion along, and many pundits consider them to be more truthful or representative than traditional polling.
In straight bets on election outcomes, it is best to start by evaluating the social climate and popularity of the candidates in any given race. Also, consider their power to influence the public and their constituents, as well as any negative news or unpopular policies they either agree with or are involved with.
For futures bets, consider the likelihood of different factors occurring before a given election or debate takes place and what other influences are likely to sway the outcome of these events. This includes scandals, administrative changes, foreign relations and alliances, and more.
Regarding proposition bets, it is best to research the history of behaviors and actions of any individual the political prop bet is targeting before wagering real money on a result. Prop bet results can be unpredictable, such as an outcome not mentioned on the betting line. For example, a wager like 'What color tie a candidate will wear during the debate?' may be derailed by that candidate bucking expectations and opting not to wear a tie at all.
Tips for Political Gambling
There are several tips and tricks when it comes to how to bet on politics. Sports bettors will of course be familiar with some of these political betting strategies, but the market has some peculiarities that must also be taken into account. Politics, unlike sports, is ultimately only loosely empirical. Most election results are predicated on trends, fads, and emotions affecting the population at large. Remember, fans have little say in the outcome of the Super Bowl, but they have tremendous say in the outcomes of elections.
The biggest tip we can provide is to not chase losing bets. Staying level-headed and maintaining detachment is vital when gambling on politics. Rather than wagering with emotions, using unbiased logic and researched information when placing a wager on an event will result in a higher chance for success. However, it is also crucial to utilize intuition when necessary, and it's a delicate balance (unlike the national budget).
Another tip we can provide is to not bet on every election or race available. Instead, only bet on the ones you feel you are most likely to win. This seems obvious, but you'd be surprised how many people bet 'straight ticket.' Specialize as much as possible in various areas, whether that be on certain types of elections or on certain political regions, as this specialization will improve your chances of success far more than placing bets on a whim in hopes of a yuge payout. Underdogs are underdogs for a reason, but 2016 Trump bettors made a mint by being tuned into the people instead of the mainstream media.
No matter where in the world bets are placed, the information and tips provided here will aid your political betting endeavors. Be sure to check the sportsbook table above for reliable, safe, and secure platforms to bet on politics no matter where you are in the world.
Odds are fixed by bookmakers to ensure an equal amount is wagered on each side. This is why you see the odds change over time. When too much money is being bet on one side of a wager, the oddsmakers will change the odds to entice more action on the other side. In general, however, when betting on the favored choice, a low risk yields a low payout. On the other hand, betting on the underdog is a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
Political betting odds are based on the American moneyline system. This means that each side of a wager will have an associated moneyline, or risk-to-reward number. You can view the moneyline as a bet's price tag. An example follows:
2020 General Election Winner
- Donald Trump -140
- Joe Biden +130
A negative moneyline in a straight bet is the favorite, while a positive moneyline is the underdog. For negative lines, this shows you how much money you must risk to win $100. Above, that means you'd have to bet $140 on Trump to win in order to make $100 in profit. Meanwhile, a positive line shows how much you stand to win on a $100 bet. In the case of Biden, you'd win $130 on a risk of $100.
Remember, these are not betting minimums, they simply show the ratio of risk-to-reward. Most election betting sites will allow you to place wagers of as little as $0.50 to $1.00.
For political props, you will often see both sides of an over/under or yes/no bet with the same moneyline. Consider the following hypothetical prop:
Will Donald Trump tweet during the Super Bowl?
Political Gambling Site
- Yes -115
- No -115
Here, both bets cost the same amount. That is, bettors would need to shell out $115 to win $100. Sportsbooks do this commonly with football and basketball spread bets, as it guarantees a built-in profit no matter which way the outcome goes. That bit of profit is called 'vigorish,' or 'vig' for short. You might also hear it referred to as 'juice' or the 'house take.'
Any political gambling site we recommend must have a valid license in good standing from a regulatory oversight committee in its country of origin. The site must have firewall protection, antivirus protection, and anti-fraud protection. The sportsbook must also have SSL or TLS encrypted security to ensure that all members' personal and financial information is safe. Additionally, a dedicated technical team must monitor the security of the site 24/7. We ensure that the sites listed in our table of political betting sites meet these requirements.
Every election that is included at offshore sportsbooks can be legally wagered on. These include Presidential odds, Senate odds, House odds, and Gubernatorial odds, to name a few. Betting on political elections will be more readily available as each particular election draws near, though some races – especially at the local and state levels – may not attract enough action for books to offer compelling lines.
Is it fun to gamble on politics? You bet! Pixabay/Jan Vasek
Everybody has a political opinion and a prediction about who will win the 2020 election. But are you willing to “put your money where your mouth is,” as the old adage goes? Well, you can bet on political outcomes, and the industry has only become bigger in recent years. Not only can you gamble on who you think will win the presidential election, but such bets might also give us a clue about who could win, according to political scientists.
Is It Legal to Bet on Political Outcomes?
Gambling in America used to be heavily regulated. Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, betting on politics was a growing industry, just like it is in sports. But former NBA star Bill Bradley, who served three terms as a New Jersey senator from 1979 to 1997, led the charge to curtail gambling. Enter PAPSA, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. It was a federal ban on sports gambling that curtailed betting on sports—and politics. The bipartisan effort passed the Democratic-controlled Congress and was signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1992, going into effect in January of 1993. Only four states were exempt from this: Oregon, Montana, Delaware and, of course, Nevada, as all four already had some sort of statewide regulated gambling.
Political Betting Website
SEE ALSO: How to Combat the Sinister Role Deepfakes Will Play in the Election
New Jersey challenged PAPSA in the courts, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which struck down the law and handed New Jersey, and gamblers, a big victory. Congress could still get involved in the future, states still need to pass laws enabling regulated gambling, and the Federal Wire Act stands in the way of online betting, but placing wagers on politics is back in business.
As Legal Betting Online points out, “The irony of betting on the elections and events associated with those politicians attempting to outlaw gambling is not lost on the American people.”
Believe it or not, such predictive markets answering “yes” or “no” questions about politics—like, “Will Donald Trump be reelected?” or “Will Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard drop out next month?”—were allowed even before PAPSA was dumped, as regulators sort of ignored these measures. Why? “For the valuable insight they provided,” writes Sports Betting Dime. “As traders buy and sell their shares, researchers get a better idea at what the collective mind is thinking about candidates and the events surrounding them. The idea is that people are buying shares based on what they truly believe is going to happen, not just what they want to happen. These markets provide real-time insight into political campaigns, and how different events impact them.”
How Betting on Ballots Works
To find out more about the nuts and bolts of political bets, I spoke to oddsmaker Mike Pierce with online sportsbook TopBet.eu. I went to their site and asked some questions about how to place a wager and what the numbers mean, as I am a novice gambler.
For example, the site lists Donald Trump at -125. Does that mean he’s going to win or lose? “Since Trump is a -125 favorite, you would need to risk $125 to win $100 on him to be president in 2020,” Pierce explained.
TopBet.eu also lists +200 for Elizabeth Warren, but that doesn’t mean they think she’s going to win. “Conversely, if you [look at] Warren, who is +200 to be the next president, a $100 bet on her would win you $200 net profit.”
So how do they determine these odds, who gets a minus (-) sign and who gets a positive (+) sign next to their names?
“At the current moment, we win money if Trump is reelected as president and lose money if Warren is elected U.S. president,” Pierce said. “This is because 37% of cash on the 2020 U.S. presidential future is backing Warren who is a +200 underdog, while 29% of cash on the future is backing the -125 favorite Trump.”
Do Betting Markets Help Predict the Future?
The literature from academia on political betting as a predictor is a lot more supportive than you may think. Given that a good theory can describe, explain and predict, why not an independent assessment via betting?
“Prediction markets apparently originated in 1988, when the first Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the winner of the presidential election,” writes Michael Abramowicz in his article “The Politics of Prediction” published in Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, an MIT Press Journal. “The founds of the Iowa Electronic Markets wanted a vehicle that would better explain the workings of the financial markets, and their approach built on the work of experimental economists who had conducted experiments using simplified financial markets in the laboratory.”
But betting on politics goes even further back to the days of post-Civil War politics. In the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf found that bets were a pretty good forecast of elections, even before the era of scientific surveys from 1868 to the 1940s. But an analysis of betting on the 2008 Democratic Party primary candidates by Emily West in the Journal of Politics showed a mixed result for determining the connection between belief in success and bets.
I visited RealClearPolitics and saw that while Joe Biden is leading the national polls by a little—ahead in New Hampshire and even Massachusetts (Warren’s state), taking Nevada, winning South Carolina and Texas by a wide margin, losing only Iowa—he’s trailing Warren in betting odds by a 33-point margin. I asked Pierce how that could be.
Political Gambling Sites
“We feel that while Biden is the more well-known candidate, it appears Warren is starting to be the more popular candidate,” he explained. “She is starting to receive more money for fundraising compared to Biden. This is a big reason why we think she will be the Democratic nominee for president next year.”
I’m not so sure, but it is fascinating that the outcomes of betting could be so different from the polls. We’ll find out next year if using your head and following the surveys is the smart wager, or gambling on your heart and betting on who you want to win could be the best plan.
One final note: Before you lay down a single dollar on a bet, do your research and make sure you’re casting your lot with a reputable site that has a good track record of paying off when you win.
Political Gambling Website
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia—read his full bio here.